Scott Reviews
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If you hold an FAA certificate -- you need this book!
A superb reference for aviation professionals & hobbiests.
Excellent book. A must read for all pilots
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Don't let a bad forecast ruin your whole decisionPrinciples of Forecasting is not a book that you will find in airport bookstores. It is not a popular management title that dishes-up the latest buzzwords. On the contrary, this book will give you knowledge to examine critically the fashions and fads, as well as the received wisdom, of management. And yet, despite being a serious work, the book is a joy to read at length, or to browse. I suspect many decision makers will tend to do the latter.
The Forecasting Dictionary is part of Principles of Forecasting and is a good place to start some directed browsing. For example, experienced decision makers will often rely on their intuition, even for important decisions. Is that a good idea? The Forecasting Dictionary has an entry for "intuition" that tells us, "... it is difficult to find published studies in which intuition is superior to structured judgment". Highlighted terms, such as "structured judgment" in the preceding passage, indicate that there is a separate Dictionary entry for the term. By following the highlighted terms and the references to the body of the book which are included in Dictionary entries, one can quickly pick up a useful understanding of a topic. Some entries are very detailed.
Following the intuition entry to the entry on structured judgement, one finds "role playing" as an approach to imposing structure on a forecasting problem. Role-play forecasting for conflict situations happens to be an interest of mine. There is a chapter on role-playing in Principles of Forecasting that provides evidence that the outcomes of role-plays by students, and other non- representative role-players, provide accurate forecasts of decisions in real conflicts. This is counter-intuitive given that the conflicts examined involved generals, chief executives, directors, and union leaders among others. Moreover, unaided judgment tends to do poorly by comparison. This has important implications for strategy development - after all, what use is a strategy that fails to forecast accurately how other parties will behave?
I keep my copy of Principles of Forecasting handy, refer to it often, and learn something new every time I do so. How many books could one say that of? A precious few. Congratulations to the authors on a unique and valuable work well executed.
Guidelines for Developers, Researchers, and PractitionersThe final chapter of this book contains 139 forecasting principles...
An example of a forecasting principle is: “13.25 Use multiple measures of accuracy”. A primary use for such principles would be as checklists for software developers, researchers, and practitioners to be sure that their work is complete to this level of detail. These are important general principles. Forecasters will need to use other references for the details of forecasting methods.
The Web site for this book is a very valuable resource for forecasters. Some of the resources are: (1) forecasting dictionary [Enter a forecasting term and the Web site returns a definition.] (2) links to forecasting software sites (3) links to forecasting books and reviews (3) links to bibliographies, abstracts, and (for subscribers) full text papers (4) links to conferences on forecasting (5) links to Web sites related to forecasting.
An Excellent Overview of Business ForecastingRisk analysis has dealt more with subjects like natural and technological disasters. Business forecasting resembled risk analysis in several ways, but over the years, enterprise and capital markets accumulated much more extensive data. Social scientists studied the process of (and procedures for) forecasting with financial data intensively. Small wonder, as poor forecasting often led to costly disasters.
The authors wrote the Handbook in clear, coherent prose. It assembled 29 articles by 40 leading experts into an excellent book with 18 chapters. Armstrong, the editor (and clearly the instigator) created a hierarchical framework that described the relationships between different kinds of forecasting information, beginning with either judgmental or statistical sources. "Principles of Forecasting" illustrated this framework in an often repeated diagram.
The framework contributed to a coherent structure. Each chapter described one compartment within the framework. Each had an introduction that described the limitations and uses of a source of data used by forecasters. Each article also started with an abstract. Thus, a reader could quickly survey all of forecasting by skimming through the Handbook and reading either the article abstracts or the chapter introductions.
Instead of reading the text sequentially, the framework and the Handbook's structure also allowed finding a specific article (or a topic of interest within an article) quickly, yet staying oriented to the overall subject. Thus, "Principles of Forecasting" served a handy reference text. The organization and a competent index sped this application.
Many articles were excellent. None were less than very good. The articles concentrated on principles within subdomains of forecasting, which the Handbook emphasized by setting the principles apart in bullet format and bold text. The articles had a common format, which included two useful implication sections, separately for practitioners and for researchers. The articles also had overall summaries, and references to the literature. The authors edited each other's articles, which imposed both high quality and consistency on the Handbook. In addition, an extensive group of outside experts reviewed the articles. This huge effort showed in both dense information content and readability of the articles.
Similarly, the Handbook contained a separate and marvelous "Forecasting Dictionary" toward the end, which allowed quick reference to (and understanding of) separate ideas involved in competent forecasting. In another separate section toward the end of the Handbook, a "Forecasting Standards Checklist" gathered all of the principles from the separate articles and condensed them into a very useful guide.
"Principles of Forecasting" appeared comprehensive in its coverage. The authors wrote it as an explanation of a field, instead of a group of individual articles about related subjects. An introduction and a summary at the beginning and end of the book, also helped orient me to the overall subject of forecasting and to the need for principles. I thought that the Handbook reflected the consistent objective of a group of experts to interpret and explain forecasting. So, I will recommend it as a textbook for classroom use.
"Principles of Forecasting" is not for everyone. It is an expert text. However, for persons involved in (or hoping to become involved in) forecasting or its allied and subsidiary fields, such risk analysis or econometrics, it will prove indispensable.


Encore! Encore! Playing the flute is fun AND easy!The book goes through the necessary steps including how to make a sound (which is easier said than done), fingering, charts, and the language of music. It is simple, fun and you'll be anything but frustrated! It may be a bit juvenile (come on, the first songs you learn are "Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star" and so on) but it is still a very worthwhile investment. If you're serious about learning to play the flute, this is the beginner's book of choice!
Novice's Dream!
Excelent method book!

Exemplary theoretical AND practical political readingThe exact subjects of the essays varry by topic, but an overall theme examines how the late 20th century GLBT political movement undersold it's own radical roots for political expidency, and a chance to sit at the proverbial policy making table with some people who would altogether pretend they not exist.
Obvious and easy to only launch attacks (however well-deserved) at the religious right, whose various campaigns against GLBT Americans all come back to bigotry and intolerance, he also takes on allies who mince words and confuse policy making's inherent requirements with the right to sell out all of one's principles.
Intra-community criticism is never easy (especially in the middle of various social movement struggles) but a neccessary pre-condition to ensure policy innovations continue to impact the dominant society while keeping the social movement relevant.
library journal recommends The Queer Question
Sharp, witty essays take on the gay movement and the leftThe real achievement of The Queer Question (South End Press, $30 hardcover/$18 paper) is Tucker's linkage of queer consciousness with class: "For many people in this country, including queers, the social climate is only tolerable at best, and sometimes murderous at worst." His idealism consists in connecting the oppression queers feel to sexism, classism and the horrors of "the corporate state."
Tucker refers to Wilhelm Reich, the Freudian heretic who made these same connections over 60 years ago, but to his credit, The Queer Question (unique among books of its sort) advances no Theory and shills for no Discourse. Indeed, the essay on Foucault brilliantly criticizes him as a "materialist mystic" whose bravura philosophizing blinds his readers to social fact.
Most of the essays are, however, more topical, centering especially on the culture wars of the past 10 years with special reference to the queers' "battered wife" relationship to Bill Clinton. Tucker makes the point, so obvious that almost nobody else seems to get it, that a President who ends welfare and backs the Defense of Marriage Act was never a "friend" of gays and lesbians, merely a shrewd opportunist. One wishes that Tucker can find the time for an essay devoted purely to the growing literature about Clinton and his queer "allies," like David Mixner's memoir.
If The Queer Question has a weakness, it's precisely this topicality. I suspect that in 10 or 20 years, the book will need footnotes to explain who are half of Tucker's targets - a hazard of all political writing. But right now, right here, the book should inspire any Left radical with hope and canny tactical advice.
Although he doesn't write much about ACT UP, Tucker's commitment to the group evidently taught him many of the bitter lessons he recounts here: lessons in the uselessness of "liberals," in the importance of connecting queer struggles with anti-racist and anti-sexist battles, in the indivisibility of freedom. One might guess that Tucker's vision of socialism stems at least partly from ACT UP's freewheeling style. But since he lays out no program for American socialism different from, say, Michael Harrington, he probably intends his book as (to quote Emerson) provocation, not instruction.
And Tucker is provocative! Camille Paglia is "the Rush Limbaugh of post-feminism." Larry Kramer displays "the anarchism of the arrogant." And - an insight worth the price of admission - "Liberalism is class-consciousness with a bad conscience." With jabs like these, Tucker forces you to think (even while you gasp and laugh) and rethink your own positions. The essayist who comes to mind is Gore Vidal, and since Vidal may be the best around, that's a compliment to Tucker's wit.
The other great virtue of The Queer Question is its historical perspective. An essay on the Netherlands reminds on that persecuting queers didn't start with Jesse Helms, and throughout the book Tucker puts into context 1997's struggles by referring to the ugly traditions of intolerance against queers and all sexual "deviants." Yet Tucker reads history in a more hopeful light as well, very much in the socialist tradition of Marx and Gramsci - as the forward movement of the struggle for freedom. To that extent, he's an idealist, the very trait he deplores in Foucault. He does seem to believe that queers' struggles to belong to some unfolding, historical design. Let's hope Tucker has that one right. Certainly the closet doors of America can't be nailed shut just because the Falwells and the Buchanans want them sealed. The Queer Question reminds one that, however disgusting this moment in American life may be, there is a revolutionary tradition we can connect with, and also the certainty that even bigotry may yet be forced to yield.
Book Review by Lawrence Richette
Courtesy of Au Courant:

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Excellent Book On Rachel's Impact
Rachel Smiles Extraordinary
Amazing, beautiful, encouraging!
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Raising A Loving Family
Raising a Loving Family
If you read only one parenting book, read this one!
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Canadian Living 101.5
It tells of the most storied hockey rinks in north america.
Takes you there.
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the night the televisions went down.I recently received this book, and quite honestly found it utterly a great fun book to read.
Its a quiet night in Frostbite Falls, everyone's at home watching their favourite shows on television. All of a sudden the screens go blank! What's happened? A strike at the local studio? A powercut? No such luck!!
It seems that your friendly neighbourhood bad guy, Boris, is at it again!! Acting under orders from Mr Big, his boss, he is making 6 foot high metal munching mice!! Mr Big is on the moon, and is making misery there. He has tricked the moon men, Cloyd and Gidney (yes its nice to see you back fellas) into bringing the mice to the USA.
Time to call (no, not Rentokil) but Rocky and Bullwinkle to foil their plans, with the help of Cloyd and Gidney.
Once again, great fun and a great read. Kids will really love this. Oh, if only they were back on British tv. Maybe they could give the job of Head of the BBC to Mr Big, he could set his mice on those annoying television licence detector vans.
Boris is at it againI've just recently received this book, and quite frankly it was enormous fun!!!
It's a quiet evening in Frostbite Falls, everyone is at home watching their favourite tv programmes when the screens go blank!!! What's happened? A power cut? A strike at the local television station? No!! It seems that there's an epidemic of aerials being chewed off by someone or something?
Your local neighbour from Hell, Mr Boris Badenov has been up to his tricks, and has made some giant mice that eat the aerials!!! Actually, he's under orders from his boss, Mr Big, who made a crash landing on the moon, (as if he was already off this planet) who wants to take over America.
Heavens to Betsy Ross, what do we do next? Call Rentokil? No, you enlist the help of your local heroes, Rocky and Bullwinkle, who with some extra terrestial help from their moon men friends, Cloyd and Gidney, set about foiling Boris' plan.
A great read and great fun.
Adios and keep a close eye on your televisions.
the great television mystery (or Boris is at it again!)I have just received this book and once again it is really good fun.
It is a quiet evening in Frostbite Falls, everyone is home in front of their televisions when suddenly the screens go blank!!!
Why, what's happened? A strike at the local TV station? A powercut? No. An infestation of giant metal munching mice!!! Time to call in your very own resident "mousecatchers" no, not RENTOKIL, but Messrs Rocky and Bullwinkle. With a little extra terrestial help from Cloyd and Gidney, (yes its nice to see you back, fellas,) they set out to discover the mystery behind the mice.
You can guess who is behind it!! Yes, your neighbour from hell, Boris!!! Honestly, hasn't he heard of going to the pet shop to feed the mice? It seems that Mr Big, his boss, is out to take over the USA yet again.
So he tricks Cloyd and Gidney into bringing the metal monsters to our planet. Boris and Natasha swing into villainy and cause mayhem, but they reckon without the moose and squirrel who, with the help of Cloyd and Gidney and their SCROOCHING gun, they once again restore viewing to Frostbite Falls.
Come to think of it, maybe we should give the job of Head of BBC to Mr Big, he can then get rid of all those annoying Television Licence Detector Vans with them.
All in all, a good read and a good laugh for young and old alike.
Yep, rush to your local bookstore and buy this!!!
bye for now, and guard your TV sets!!!

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Clever, Funny, Sweet & Romantic!!
Is Ronnie really about me?
A sweet love story!

Profoundly Entertaining
Very nice, refreshing
Good Text Book